| 空气中PM2.5浓度的灰色预测与关联因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛毳,孙宇,冯樷,冯双喜.空气中PM2.5浓度的灰色预测与关联因素分析[J].宁夏大学学报(自然科学版),2014(3):283-288. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛毳 孙宇 冯樷 冯双喜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津城建大学 土木工程学院,天津,300384
2. 天津城建大学 经济与管理学院,天津,300384 |
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| 摘 要： | 2013年1月开始,国内持续的大范围雾霾天气,将PM2.5问题推向了舆论热潮的顶峰.结合武汉市监测点的数据建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并编写VB程序建立GM(1,1)系统,对未来短期PM2.5浓度变化进行预测,弥补了监测过程中缺失的数据.此外,根据武汉市空气质量监测数据和京津冀、上海、广东及全国其他地区的工业废气、粉尘排放量数据进行灰色关联度分析,得出CO,O3,NH3和NH4NO3与PM2.5浓度的相关性较强,从而为进一步研究PM2.5提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | PM2.5 灰色预测 VB程序 灰色关联度 |
Grey Forecast and Correlation Factors Analysis of PM2.5 in the Air |
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| MaoCui,SunYu
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FengCong,FengShuangxi.Grey Forecast and Correlation Factors Analysis of PM2.5 in the Air[J].Journal of Ningxia University(Natural Science Edition),2014(3):283-288. |
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| Authors: | MaoCui SunYu FengCong FengShuangxi |
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| Institution: | MaoCui, SunYu, FengCong, FengShuangxi (1. School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China; 2. School of Economics and Management , Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China) |
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| Abstract: | As the appearance of continuous haze with a wide range in January 2013,the problem of PM2.5 had been becoming the focus of discussion among people.Based on the monitoring data in Wuhan,a grey prediction model GM （1,1）is set up by using VB program to make up the missing data in the process of monitoring,and to forecast short-term concentration change of PM2.5 in the future.In addition,the grey correlation analysis is presented between the air quality monitoring data in Wuhan and the waste gas and dust emissions data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Shanghai,Guangdong and other national industrial region.It is shown that CO,O3,NH3 and NH4NO3 are strongly correlated with the concentration of PM2.5,which provide a scientific basis for the further study of PM2.5. |
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| Keywords: | PM2 5 grey forecast VB program correlation factors |
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