基于系统动力学的集装箱港口博弈模拟研究

随着我国集装箱港口之间市场竞争的加剧,如何在求得生存和发展是经营者面临的一个重大课题。在建立了集装箱港口博弈模型的基础上,运用系统动力学对珠三角地区的集装箱港口之间的竞争进行模拟。结果表明,系统动力学可以模拟出集装箱港口之间的竞争结果;在集装箱港口的各竞争策略中,价格策略对港口市场占有率的影响不大,但对其利润有一定的影响;基础设施投资策略的效果最明显;而组合策略对市场造成的波动最小。

Research of Competition Simulation for Container Ports Based on System Dynamics

As the competition between the Chinese container ports intensifying, how to get survival and development becomes one of the most important topics for the port operator. The system dynamics was used to make the simulation of the container ports competition in Zhujiang Delta area of China on the base of the container port game model. The results show that the system dynamics can simulate the outcome of the container port competition successfully. Among the different container port competition strategies, the effect of price strategy is weak to the port market share, but can cause the port profit to change. The effect of infrastructure strategy is the most evident, and the combination strategy will cause the least fluctuation to the market.