| 基于神经网络模型评价高技术项目投资风险 |
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| 引用本文： | 包月英,开小明. 基于神经网络模型评价高技术项目投资风险[J]. 合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 27(7): 851-854 |
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| 作者姓名： | 包月英 开小明 |
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| 作者单位： | 安庆师范学院,图书馆,安徽,安庆,246011;安庆师范学院,化学系,安徽,安庆,246011 |
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| 基金项目： | 安庆师范学院科研基金资助项目(2003YWY025) |
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| 摘 要： | 简要回顾了人工神经网络的发展历史,介绍了信息计量学的概念和人工神经网络算法在信息计量学领域中的应用,警示了在人工神经网络应用中的"过拟合"现象。在对高技术项目投资风险因素分析的基础上,建立了能够预测项目投资风险的线性神经网络模型,模型避免了"过拟合"现象的发生。通过对有关数据进行实例计算,预测结果表明,该神经网络模型稳定可靠,所获得的结果是令人满意的。
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络 过拟合 信息计量学 投资风险评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5060(2004)07-0851-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-10-24 |
Evaluation of the investment risk of high tech projects based on the neural network model |
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| BAO Yue-ying,KAI Xiao-ming. Evaluation of the investment risk of high tech projects based on the neural network model[J]. Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science), 2004, 27(7): 851-854 |
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| Authors: | BAO Yue-ying KAI Xiao-ming |
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| Abstract: | The development history of artificial neural network, the conception of informetrics and the application of neural network algorithms to the research fields of informetrics are introduced,and the problem of overfitting in the application of neural network methods is pointed out. Based on the analysis of the risk factors in investing in high tech projects, a linear neural network model is presented to predict the investment risks, and the problem of overfitting is avoided in the model. The calculation of data taken from the related literature is carried out,and the prediction results show that the model is stable and reliable and the results are satisfying. |
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| Keywords: | neural network overfitting informetrics investment risk evaluation |
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