复杂仿真系统模型验证方法的研究

复杂仿真系统置信度评估理论及方法研究是仿真界的难题。本文根据复杂仿真系统的特点,提出了利用贝叶斯(Bayes)理论对复杂仿真系统模型进行验证的方法,建立了检验建模与仿真(M&S)中的复杂假设的规则及实现算法,经过部分实例证明此方法是一种准确、通用和有效的方法。对复杂假设进行检验的Bayes方法,对于小子样甚至是特小子样场合的仿真系统具有参考价值。

The Research of the Method to Model Validation on Complicated Simulation System

The research on the theory and methods of assessing confidence for complicated simulation systems is a difficult problem in simulation systems. According to the characteristics of complicated simulation system, an efficient approach to model validation for complicated simulation systems by Bayes theory has been put forward in this paper. The test rules are derived and algorithm is given. Some actual examples have proved that this method is accurate and efficient. The method of complicated hypothesis test with Bayes used in this paper is very valuable to simulation systems analysis under the circumstances of small, even extra-small samples.