利用Logistic回归模型对上市公司被国企和民企收购的预测

利用Logistic回归模型对公司能否被国企和民企收购进行预测研究.结果表明:资产负债率和托宾Q比率对上市公司被国企收购产生显著的负面影响,相反却对被民企收购产生显著的正面影响,这说明国企和民企在选择收购目标时,对这两个因素判断的方向不同,民企愿意在对外投资时冒更高的风险;民企偏好收购经营效率较低的公司;两类收购者都更加看重上市公司的未来回报能力而不是现期回报能力.

Forecasting Research on Listed Companies Acquired by State-Owned Enterprises and Private Enterprises Using Logistic Regression Model

Forecasting research was carried out on whether listed companies would be acquired by state-owned enterprises(SOEs) and private enterprises(PEs) using Logistic regression model.It was found that companies with lower assets liabilities ratio and Tobin's Q ratio are more likely to be acquired by SOEs,while companies with higher these two ratios are more likely to be acquired by PEs.Furthermore,low(total) assets turnover of companies raises the probability of being acquired by PEs.Finally,all the acquirers seem to prefer the future return capacities to the present return capacities of object companies.