海平面上升对广西珍珠港红树林分布的影响

以广西珍珠港的遥感影像为底图,综合考虑相对海平面变化、地表沉积及海堤分布,利用平均潮位、平均大潮高潮位数据,借助SRTM数字高程模型,预测未来100 a海平面上升低、中、高3种模式下研究区红树林的分布.结果表明:(1)预测年研究区的红树林向陆边界保持稳定,向海边界向海方向移动,红树林的分布面积增加.绝对海平面上升低、中、高3种模式下,红树林向海边界分别向海推进70、56、46 m,面积分别增加280、225、187 hm2;(2)红树林的向陆边界由于海堤的阻碍保持稳定,红树林的向海边界因沉积速率大于相对海平面上升速率而向海扩展.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Mangrove Distribution in Guangxi Pearl Harbor

Using digital elevation model based on remote sensing imagery, we predict the centennial changes of mangrove distribution in Guangxi Pearl Harbor from 2090 to 2099 through analysis of relative sea level rise, surface deposition, seawalls, and the tide gauge data obtained from 1990 to 1999. The predicted results show that, （1） the seaward margin of mangrove will migrate toward the sea while the landward margin remains stable, resulting in an increased area of mangrove colonization. In conditions of low, moderate and high sea level rise, the predicted migrating distances are about 70 m, 56 m and 46 m, respectively. The corresponding area increases will be 280 hm^2, 225 hm^2 and 187 hm^2. （2） The landward margin of mangrove will remain stable because of the seawalls. The seaward margin will migrate toward the sea as a result of a greater surface deposition rate than the rate of relative sea level rise.