基于云模型的地震区公路震害风险评估

采用主成分分析与专家调查相结合的方法进行因子辨识,筛选出对公路沿线区域地震风险有显著影响的峰值加速度、植被覆盖率、地层岩性和地表坡度作为评价因子.引入云模型理论,改进传统层次分析法的不足,提出了基于云模型层次分析法的地震区公路震害评估赋权方法.运用地理信息系统技术平台,研究了各风险因子的标度分值,建立了地震区公路震害风险评估模型并进行了实例分析.结果表明:实例工程震害风险指数在1.00~6.96之间,其中大部分区域震害风险指数处于5以下,路线起点南及东南为高峰值加速度、硬岩、大边坡坡度区域,震害风险指数接近7,风险评估计算结果与实际相符.

Cloud Model based Seismic Risk Assessment of Road in Earthquake Region

The risk factors has significant influence on Seismic risk along highway were discriminated, principal component analysis and expert survey method were used. Such as peak acceleration, vegetation coverage, formation lithology, slope, were as evaluation factor. The insignificance of traditional analytic hierarchy process was improved by using cloud model, and a weight approach was proposed for seismic risk assessment based on cloud model- analytic hierarchy process. The scale scores of each risk factor was studied by using geographic information systems technology platform, assessment model of seismic risk was set up, and the method was validated. The results indicate that the seismic risk index of experiment area is 1-6.96. Seismic risk value of most regional is less than 5, the maximum value in South and southeast of starting point with high peak acceleration ,hard rock and large slop close to 7, analysis result correspond with the actual.