非均质油藏产水率预测的分形分析

以分形理论为基础，根据非均质油藏参数服从统计自相似分形分布特性的假定，结合分形统计学中的Ｒ／Ｓ分析方法，研究了油藏的非均质性，提出非均质油藏水淹区含水饱和度的表达式和未来产水率变化的预测方法，并对某油田产水率上升趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明，Ｒ／Ｓ方法可以用来分析油藏方向上的非均质性，该方法使非均质油藏的产水率预测更加快捷、有效；给出的饱和度变化的表达式可以作为油藏产能动态预测的基础。

VARIATION ANALYSIS OF WATER CUT IN HETEROGENEOUS RESERVOIR WITH FRACTALS

Based on the fractal theory and assumption that the parameters of heterogeneous reservoirs follow the fractal property of statistical self similarity law, the heterogeneity of reservoirs was studied with the R/S analysis of fractal statistics. The formulas of water saturation variations with time in heterogeneous reservoirs are presented. As an example, the future water cut of an oilfield was predicted, and a good match between the field data was obtained. It showed that R/S analysis was effective for analyses of the heterogeneity of reservoirs. The formulas of water saturation variations with time in heterogeneous reservoirs are useful to predict the future productivity of heterogeneous reservoirs, and they are effective to predict the future water cut of heterogeneous reservoir with the method.