基于蒙特卡洛法的采场结构可靠性研究

为了进一步提高采场可靠性评价的准确性,进而改善工作人员的工作环境、保证工作人员安全,采用蒙特卡洛法对采场可靠性进行研究。在分析采场的失效模式后结合可靠性理论建立了采场可靠性模型和极限方程。考虑到极限方程中参数的随机性和独立性,用蒙特卡洛法对其进行无偏估计,并给出了具体的计算步骤和计算公式。最后结合工程实例,将此方法应用于实际工程来评价一个采场的结构稳定性,得出该采场处于可靠状态的概率为R=0.824。结果表明,采用蒙特卡洛法在一定程度上提高了采场可靠性评价的科学性和准确性。

Stope Structural Reliability Research Based on Monte-Carlo Method

In order to improve the accuracy of stope reliability evaluation and improve the working environment of workers to guarantee the safety of workers,use the Monte-Carlo Method to conduct the stope reliability research.The complexity of stope structure determines its structural functional equation (limiting equation) is not a exact function expression but a implicit expression.After analyzing the failure mode of stope,establish the stope reliability model and limiting equation combined with reliability theory.In consideration of the parameter randomness and independence of limiting equation,the Monte-Carlo Method can be used to conduct the unbiased estimation on stope reliability analysis and the specific calculating procedure and calculation formula have been given out.At last,combined with one engineering example,utilize this method in the a actual engineering to evaluate the structural reliability of a stope and the probability of the stope is in the reliable condition is R =0.824.Results show that utilizing the Monte-Carlo Method to conduct the stope reliability research can improve the scientificity and accuracy of stope reliability evaluation to a certain extent.