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闭环回收供应链中牛鞭效应量化分析
引用本文:袁野,张建恒.闭环回收供应链中牛鞭效应量化分析[J].甘肃科学学报,2017,29(2).
作者姓名:袁野  张建恒
作者单位:天津大学 管理与经济学部,天津,300072
摘    要:环保和资源的问题关系到整个社会和环境,现代制造越来越注重资源的可持续化应用。将牛鞭效应的量化与控制引入闭环供应链的研究中,有效测量了有回收的供应链中的牛鞭效应。结合传统制造业的制造及分销渠道,运用运筹学及数学理论建立了一个由生产者、销售者及回收渠道组成的供应链模型,并进行数值实验计算和分析。结果表明:牛鞭效应仍存在于具有回收途径的供应链中,减少回收产品直接销售并重新加工能够降低整体供应链的牛鞭效应。

关 键 词:牛鞭效应  闭环供应链  AR(1)  移动平均预测

Quantitative Analysis of Bullwhip Effect in Closed-loop Recycling Supply Chain
Yuan Ye,Zhang Jianheng.Quantitative Analysis of Bullwhip Effect in Closed-loop Recycling Supply Chain[J].Journal of Gansu Sciences,2017,29(2).
Authors:Yuan Ye  Zhang Jianheng
Abstract:Environmental protection and resource issues related to the entire society and the environment,modern manufacturing increasingly focus on Sustainable Application of resources.In this paper,the quantification and control for bullwhip effect was introduced into the study of closed-loop supply chain,and the bullwhip effect with recovery in supply chain was measured effectively.Based on the manufacturing and distribution channels of traditional manufacturing industry,using operational research and mathematical theory,a supply chain model for manufacturer,sellers and recycling channels was built.The numerical experiments results showed that the bullwhip effect still existed in the recycling pathway of the supply chain,and the bullwhip effect in supply chain could be decreased by reducing recycling products direct sales and re processing.
Keywords:Bullwhip effect  Closed-loop supply chain  AR(1)  Moving average prediction
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