基于MCE-CA的东莞市紧凑城市形态模拟

针对快速城市化引起的城市蔓延问题,利用多准则判断元胞自动机(MCE-CA)模型模拟紧凑的城市空间形态。该模型主要考虑城市发展区位和农业适宜性条件,通过AHP方法确定参数权重。以广东省东莞市为实验区,在准确模拟东莞市2001-2005年的实际城市形态的基础上预测了2010和2020年城市形态。进一步模拟了用地更为紧凑、优质农田损失更少的紧凑城市形态。通过比较发现,后者的城市形态避免了用地分散、凌乱的问题,也节约了更多的优质农田。

Simulating Compact Urban Form Using Cellular Automata (CA) and Multi-criteria Evaluation: A Case Study in Dongguan

Rapid urbanization has caused a series of problems. This paper presents a cellular automaton model based on multi criteria evaluation (MCE-CA) in an attempt to simulate compact urban forms. Local conditions for development and suitability for agriculture are taken into account. The AHP method is used to determine the weights of each factor. Dongguan in Guangdong Province, China, is selected as the case study area. The model is implemented to simulate the urban growth from 2001 to 2005. The simulation result is validated using the observed distribution of urban area in 2005. Then, the urban forms in 2010 and 2020 are predicted based on historical trend. Moreover, the weights of factors are shifted to further simulate the compact urban forms. The comparison between the predicted urban form and the compact urban form in 2020 indicates that the latter significantly prevents the fragmentation of development and reduces the loss of agricultural land of good quality.