考虑风电接纳风险的鲁棒实时调度方法

高比例风电接入电网后，风电有功功率的不确定性给电力系统调度决策带来了新挑战，增加了系统运行经济性与风险性之间的矛盾。针对此问题，本文提出了一种考虑风电接纳风险的鲁棒实时调度方法，首先从运行风险性角度，基于风电出力概率特性，利用金融领域中的条件系统风险（Conditional System Risk, CSR）指标，表征风电接纳风险，然后从运行经济性角度考虑，考虑了实时调度中的发电量自动控制（Automatic Generation Control，AGC）机组运行和备用成本以及风电消纳效益，表征系统运行成本，最后依据风险性指标和经济性指标，综合利用鲁棒优化和随机优化方法，构建考虑风电接纳风险的鲁棒实时调度优化模型，获取AGC机组运行基点及备用容量、风电可接纳范围，从而实现在最大程度保证系统风险难以发生的同时，提高系统运行经济性，提高风电消纳水平。通过对IEEE30节点测试系统的计算和分析验证了本文所提方法的有效性。

Robust Real-time Dispatching Method Considering Wind Power Acceptance Risk

After a high proportion of wind power is connected to the power grid, the uncertainty of the active power of wind power brings new challenges to the power system dispatching decision, and increases the contradiction between the economics and risk of system operation. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes a robust real-time dispatching method that considers wind power acceptance risk. First, from the perspective of operational risk, based on the probability characteristics of wind power output, the conditional system risk (CSR) index in the financial field is used to characterize the risk of wind power acceptance. Then, from the perspective of operating economy, considering the operation and reserve capacity costs of AGC units and wind power consumption benefits in real-time dispatching, representing the system operating costs. Finally, based on risk indicators and economic indicators, using robust optimization and stochastic optimization methods comprehensively, a robust real-time dispatching optimization model considering wind power acceptance risk is built, to obtain the operating base point and reserve capacity of AGC units, and the acceptable range of wind power, so as to ensure that the system risk is most unlikely to occur, while improving the system operation economy and enhancing wind power consumption. The validity of the method proposed in this paper is verified by the calculation and analysis of the IEEE30 node test system.