碳中和背景下中国电动车产业稀土需求预测

 构建了纯电动乘用车产业发展的3种情景，即1.5℃温控情景、现有政策情景和基准情景，并采用动态物质流分析方法计算了不同情景下纯电动乘用车的保有量和需求量，预测了纯电动乘用车产业发展引起的镝、钕和镨3种稀土元素的未来需求量、报废量和潜在回收量。结果显示：（1）在这3种情景下，纯电动乘用车保有量均呈现增长趋势；（2）在现有配额制下，钕、镝和镨的中国年产能为15219、625、4509 t，而未来需求量是5700~25900、1400~6100、600~2600 t，如果不增加产能，镝元素的产能将无法满足纯电动乘用车发展的需求，钕元素的产能仅可以满足纯电动乘用车中短期（2020-2040年）的发展需求，镨元素的产能可以满足未来纯电动乘用车发展的需求；（3）回收纯电动乘用车中的稀土元素可以有效减少稀土原矿的需求量，从而降低稀土资源一次供应量在总需求量中的比例。因此，建议分元素管控稀土元素的供应，提高针对钕、镝元素的指令性生产计划指标，加强从电动乘用车中回收稀土元素的技术研发，建立含稀土的固体废弃物如电动车、风电涡轮机的有效回收体系。

Forecast of rare earth demand driven by electric vehicle industry in China: 2010-2060

The electrification of the transportation sector is an important initiative to achieve the carbon neutrality target. It is important to accurately determine the future demand for the rare earth elements (REEs) from the sector of the battery electric passenger vehicle (BEPV), to predict the recovery potential of the materials containing REEs, and to dynamically assess the relationship between the supply and the demand, for promoting the electrification of the transportation sector and ensuring the security of the supply of the REEs. In this paper, three scenarios are identified for the development of the BEPV, namely, the business as the usual scenario, the state policy scenario and the scenario of 1.5 degrees (temperature rising) scenario. By a dynamic material flow analysis, the stocks and the flows of the BEPV are calculated; the future demand, the end-of-life volume and the potential recycling of neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy) and praseodymium (Pr) are predicted. It is shown that:(i) under all scenarios, the BEPV stock shows a growing trend; (ii) the current annual production capacity of Nd, Dy and Pr in China is 15219, 625 and 4509 t, while the future demand is 5700-25900, 1400-6100 and 600-2600 t. If the production capacity is not increased, the demand for Dy of BEPV can not be met, and the demand for Nd of BEPV can only be met in the short term (2020-2040); (iii) recovering the REEs from the BEPV can effectively reduce the demand for the REEs from the virgin source. Therefore, it is recommended to control the supply of the REEs according to each element's features, to increase the directive production plan target for Nd and Dy, to strengthen the technology research and development for recovering the REEs from the BEPV, and to establish an effective recycling system for solid wastes containing the REEs, such as electric vehicles and wind turbines.