基于蒙特卡罗仿真技术的随机型库存决策方法

应用蒙特卡罗技术对随机型库存系统进行了数值仿真，并在对有关敏感性参数研究的基础上实现了系统决策，取得了最优解．研究结果表明，这一决策方法切实可行．一个实例库存系统的仿真数据证实了两个重要结论，一是最优的库存策略允许库存方在支付一定缺货损失费的情况下采取有限制的缺货政策；二是它体现了“零库存”和JIT准时制的策略思想．

Strategic Decision for Random Inventory System Based on Mente Carlo's Simulation Technology

Numerical simulation for random inventory system applying Mente Carlo's simulation technology is carried on,moreover system decision is made and optimal solution is arrived after research on relevant sensitive parameter.These results of research confirm that the way of making decision is practicable.Two important conclusions are proved by the data from an example inventory system.One of them is that optimal inventory strategic permit a restrictive short-of-stock policy in the case of paying for decrease because of short-of-stock;the other is that it embodies the ideas of zero-inventory technology and Just-In-Time(JIT).