复杂系统使用任务完成概率模型

研究了任务期间允许换件修理时复杂系统的使用任务完成能力。对武器系统的使用任务进行分类。利用马尔可夫过程分析部件系统在特定维修保障策略下的状态转移过程，以部件系统固定任务时间内在正常状态停留时间的分布函数作为其任务完成概率模型，并通过全概率分解对任务完成概率进行求解。通过分析任务期间部件系统、装备、武器系统三者之间的任务可靠性关系进而得到复杂系统的任务完成概率。最后，运用数值计算的方法绘制了复杂系统任务完成概率随任务时间和工作量的变化曲线，讨论并分析了任务时间对任务完成概率的影响。

Usage mission completion probability model for complex systems

Complex system usage mission completion capability is researched considering spare replacement maintenance during mission. Firstly, this paper classifies the usage mission of weapon systems. Secondly, the state transition process of a spare system is analyzed through Markov process under given maintenance supply strategy, and the mission completion probability is understood as the distributing function of the spare system sojourn time at working state within fixed time. And its numerical value is got by total probability decomposition and renewal process. Thirdly, the complex system mission completion probability is got by analyzing the mission reliability relationship among spare system, equipment and weapon system. Finally, the curves of mission completion probability varying with mission time and work time are plotted by numerical calculation, and the influence of mission time on mission completion probability is analyzed.