高密度机场空中交通运行特性分析

为准确把握高密度机场空中交通运行规律,有效支撑航空运输建模、仿真、分析与实验等工作,亟需对其交通运行涉及的诸多特性进行科学分析。采用总量分析、概率统计、假设检验、包络分析、相关分析、聚类分析等理论方法,对高密度机场的交通计数分布特性、交通运行时间特性、进离场互适应特性、交通运行相关性、场面交通拥堵特性等进行了系统和全面地分析。上海浦东国际机场实例研究表明,单位时间内跑道/停机位的进场流和离场流计数服从泊松分布,滑行延误时间和无阻碍滑行时间分别服从对数正态分布和正态分布,进离场交通流之间存在明显的耦合作用关系,场面滑行时间与离场累计流量、进场累计流量、起飞队列长度、降落队列长度之间存在显著的线性相关关系。在此基础上,对机场场面拥堵等级及各关键指标临界值进行了分类识别与计算分析。所提方法对任意机场系统均具有普适性,可为机场运行管理和空中交通管理提供理论依据和建模参考。

Characteristic analysis of air traffic operations in high density traffic airports

High density airports are transportation hubs in busy flight areas and key nodes of backbone in the air route network, in which the air traffic demand has been close to, or reached and even exceeded, the capacity supply. In this context, a series of problems such as flight conflict, airport congestion and flight delay have emerged in the national airspace system. This paper aims at accurately analyzing the characteristics and laws of air traffic operations in high density airports, and effectively supporting the simulation, modeling, analysis and experimentation in air transport related academic activities. From the perspectives of aggregate analysis, probability statistics, correlation analysis and cluster analysis, we systematically studied the characteristics of air traffic operations, including the traffic count, traffic operation time, relationship between arrivals and departures, correlation among traffic operation indicators, surface traffic congestion. The methods proposed in this work are universal for any airport systems, which can provide theoretical basis and modeling references for airport operation management and air traffic management.