模糊因果图分析方法新探

因果图理论是一种基于概率论的不确定性推理模型,能够很有效的对系统进行故障诊断和分析,但在因果图模型中,要求事件的发生概率为精确值.然而在实际生活中事件的发生概率具有模糊性和不确定性的特点.将模糊集合理论引入其中,将普通事件拓展为模糊事件,并且对模糊因果图进行了定性和定量分析,解决了获取事件发生概率精确值的难度,也使得因果图的应用范围更广.

New Exploration on the Analysis of Fuzzy Causality Diagram

Causality Diagram Theory is a kind of uncertainty reasoning model based on probability theory and can very much effectively diagnose and analyze the faults of a system, in causality diagram model, however, the occurring probability of an event is required to be accurate value but in practical life, the occurring probability of an event has the feature of fuzziness and uncertainty.This paper introduces fuzzy set theory into the diagram, extends the ordinary events to fuzzy events, furthermore, makes quantitative and qualitative analysis of fuzzy causality diagram, eases the difficulty in getting the accurate value of occurring probability of an event so as to let the application range of the causality diagram wider.