供水管网模型水质不确定性研究

供水管网模型是保障供水管网水质安全的重要手段,受输入参数不确定影响水质模型计算的水质值是不确定的;为研究节点基本用水量、水损系数、主体水反应系数和管壁反应系数对供水管网水质特性的影响,提出了在假定他们的随机变化服从正态分布的条件下,采用蒙特卡罗随机抽样法,应用动态的水质模型计算得到节点水质的分布特征,给出了算法在管网中的应用;结果表明：当所有不确定输入参数共同作用时,节点水质的不确定性最大,水质反应系数是对节点水质不确定性影响程度最大的参数.

Research on the Uncertainty of Water Quality by Water Supply System Model

Water supply system model is an important method to ensure the water quality safety in water supply system, however, the water quality value calculated by water quality model affected by the uncertainty of input parameters is uncertain. In order to study the influence of the basic water consumption amount per node, water loss coefficient, main body water response coefficient and pipe wall response coefficient on the water quality property of water supply system, a dynamic water quality model is used to receive the distribution feature of node water quality by calculation via Monte Carlo random sampling method under the condition if their random change follows normal distribution. This paper gives the application of this algorithm to water supply system, and the results show that when all uncertain input parameters jointly take action, the uncertainty of node water quality is maximum and that water quality response coefficient is the largest parameter to affect the uncertainty of node water quality.