辽宁省水稻产量灾损风险评估及对策

构建水稻产量灾损风险评估模型,利用辽宁省12个地市1971—2010年水稻产量资料,采用历年平均减产率、灾年减产率变异系数、产量灾损风险指数、抗灾指数等指标对全省粮食产量灾损风险进行评估。结果表明:抚顺、铁岭及锦州地区属于水稻生产高风险区,鞍山、辽阳、营口和盘锦属于水稻生产低风险区,其余地区为中风险区。分析评估结果,结合全省水稻生产中的突出问题,从防灾减灾和灾后补救角度提出强化农业水利基础设施建设、改善农田生态环境条件、强化农业气象防灾减灾工作、健全农业防灾减灾体系和提高灾后补救能力等措施。

Riskassessment of rice yield loss caused by disasters and coutermeasueres in Liaoning province

From the perspective of risk analysis of yield loss caused by natural disasters,using the rice yield data of the 12 cities in Liaoning in the period from 1971 to 2010,an assessment model is constructed to analyze the risk of disastrous yield loss of rice in that province.Using some index such as the average reduction rate of all years during that period,the variation coefficient of reduction rates in disaster years,and the risk index of yield losses caused by disasters,resisting disasters index,etc,the risk of rice yield loss caused by disasters in Liaoning Province is comprehensively analyzed and accessed.Results show that the low-risk areas for rice production are Anshan,Liaoyang,Yingkou and Panjin,while the high-risk ones include Fushun,Tieling and Jinzhou;the other areas of the province are all medium-risk for rice production.In accordance to the assessment result and some outstanding problems found in Liaoning’s rice production in recent years,some pertinent countermeasures are proposed to reduce the risk of rice yield loss caused by disasters: strengthen the agriculture and water conservancy infrastructure construction,improve farmland ecological conditions,and reinforce the agro-meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation work,including improving the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation system while effectively enhancing the capability of post-disaster remedies.