| 基于等维灰数递补动态模型的人口老龄化趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 时丽娜,;黄汉明,;李小勇,;唐贤健,;潘士虎.基于等维灰数递补动态模型的人口老龄化趋势预测[J].烟台师范学院学报(自然科学版),2009(4):315-317. |
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| 作者姓名： | 时丽娜 ;黄汉明 ;李小勇 ;唐贤健 ;潘士虎 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广西师范大学物理科学与技术学院,广西桂林541004; [2]广西师范大学计算机科学与信息工程学院,广西桂林541004 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统中的等维灰数递补动态模型,根据人口普查中得到的老年人口占总人口的比例等数据建立了动态GM（1,1）模型.对今后几年老年人口占总人口的比率进行灰色预测,并对预测精度进行验证,结果显示拟和程度较高.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 等维灰数递补动态模型 模型检验 老龄化人口 |
Aging Population Trend Prediction Based on the Gray Recurrence Dynamic Model with Equal Dimension |
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| Institution: | SHI Li-naa,HUANG Han-mingb,LI Xiao-yonga,TANG Xian-jiana,PAN Shi-hua(Guangxi Normal University,a.College of Physics and Technology,b.College of Computer Science and Information Engineering;Guilin 541004,China) |
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| Abstract: | By using gray dynamic model with equal dimension forest theory,the dynamic GM（1,1） model is established according to these censes data of the ratio of the aging population in the total population.The ratio of the aging population in following years is conducted by gray forecast,and the prediction accuracy is verified.The result shows that the accuracy of the dynamic GM（1,1） model is high. |
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| Keywords: | gray system gray recurrence dynamic model with equal dimension model checking aging population |
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