基于SEM与SD组合的中国建筑产业竞争力动态形成机理仿真

由于建筑产业竞争力影响因素众多,构成了一个复杂系统,且尚无成熟理论可以借鉴,造成了该问题难以开展模拟仿真研究.针对这一现状,尝试将SEM(Structural equation modeling)与SD(System dynamics)结合进行仿真.在对建筑产业竞争力相关研究回顾的基础上,设计出分析框架,利用中国2006、2007年各省份(除西藏外)建筑产业的60组基本数据构建出中国建筑产业竞争力静态SEM模型,在此基础上将SEM模型进行转化,建立中国两区域建筑产业竞争力动态博弈模型,模拟出未来中国区域建筑产业竞争力发展趋势;通过调整模型中主要的参数,发现区域经济、产业集中度、区域地方保护和生产要素投入预期决策能力四个因素在区域建筑产业竞争力博弈过程中起着重要作用.

Simulation study on dynamic formation mechanism about competitiveness of China's construction industry based on the combination of SEM and SD

The competitiveness of construction industry, a complicated system, influenced by many factors and with no proper theory to borrow makes it difficult in carrying out simulation research on this problem. This paper tries to solve this problem by combining SEM with SD in the course of simulation. On the basis of the review of relative research, the analysis framework is designed. A static SEM model is put forward with the reference of the 60 groups of original data from construction industry of each province except Tibet in the past two years. After that, the SEM model is transformed on the ground of such data. Then, a dynamic game model is established between two regions about the competitiveness of construction industry, which can tell us the development direction of China's regional competitiveness of construction industry. Four factors, regional economy, industry centralization, regional monopoly and prediction of production materials used, play an important role in the game process about the regional competitiveness of construction industry.