降水预测在防洪决策风险分析中的应用

根据长江中游防洪决策实际问题，运用风险分析的理论和方法，提出了一种适用的、操作性强的防洪决策风险分析模型。该模型考虑了防洪专家根据经验所作的对未来降雨的，使专家们的预测信息得以量化并直接参与风险分析，开辟了一条开发利用防洪专家经验资源的新途径。

Application of Precipitation Prediction to Risk Analysis for Flood Control Decision-Making

In consideration of the current situation in flood control decision making for the middle Yangtze River, an adaptable model for risk analysis for flood control decision making is developed by use of the theory and methods of risk analysis. In this model, future precipitation predicted by flood control experts is taken into account, and the information obtained by experts is quantified and used for risk analysis. The development of the model opens up a new way for utilization of experts' experiences. With the development of science and technology, experts' prediction of precipitation will become more and more reliable, thus the present model will be widely used in this area.