气候变化对农业生产影响的研究方法进展

农业是对气候变化反应敏感的特殊部门,农业的稳定对中国的稳定发展至关重要。气候变化使长期形成的农业生产格局和种植模式受到冲击,影响粮食安全和农业生态环境。研究气候变化对农业影响的模型包括农业经济模拟模型、农业生态地带模型、基于经济分析的李嘉图模型和可计算的一般均衡模型等。总结各类经济学模型的设定和研究结论,可以发现,是否考虑农民的适应行为以及适应期的时间长短是争议的焦点。因此,本文研究了目前气候变化对农业生产影响的研究方法,发现研究气候变化对农业影响的计量工具从单一模型通过纳入新因素实现拓展以及多模型框架的嵌套综合成为研究方法的发展趋势。

A Review of Research Methods of the Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, the stability of agriculture is very important to the stability of China. Climate change causes the long-term agricultural production pattern and the planting pattern to be impacted, and affects the food security and the agricultural ecology environment. The model of climate change including the agricultural economy simulation model, the model of agricultural ecological zone and the Ricardo model based on economic analysis and the general equilibrium model. Summarizing the setting of various economic models and research conclusions, whether to consider the farmer''s adaptive behavior and the time length of the adaptation period is the focus of controversy in various economic models. Therefore, this paper studies the current climate change on the impact of agricultural production methods. The development trend of the measurement tool of climate change on agriculture is studied from the single model through the integration of new factors and the nested integration of multi model framework.