电力市场环境下的发电投资决策系统框架

在竞争的市场环境下,发电投资商面临更多的投资风险。为了保证电力供应的安全性,政府有关部门需要制定合适的投资政策以吸引投资者及时地兴建足够多的采用合理发电技术的发电厂。因此无论是投资者还是政策制订者均需要一套工具来开发和评估应对不确定环境的灵活的发电投资项目。在对发电投资环境进行全面分析的基础上,提出一个基于实物期权理论的分层的发电投资决策系统框架。并进一步针对发电厂的特殊性,提出在发电投资规划中可能构建的几种特殊投资期权,示范如何应用二叉树法来评估带有多个期权的发电投资项目。最后推导出项目值增长率的波动率的计算公式。提出的系统框架和相应的实现方法可为开发实用的发电投资辅助决策支持系统提供有益的参考。

A Framework for Decision-making System of Generation nvestment in a Competitive Electricity Market

In a competitive electricity market, generation-investors face more invest-risks; the government needs to make appropriate policies to attract timely and enough generation investments with reasonable generation tech- nical. Therefore, both private investors and policy makers are in need of a set of tools to develop and assess flexi- ble investment projects under uncertainties. Based on the analyses of the investment environment in generation and the theory of real options, this paper proposes a layered framework for generation strategic investment. Fur- ther more, it formulates several special options of generation investment according to the characteristics of the generation plant, and demonstrates how to value a generation project with multiple options applying the binominal lattice approach. Finally, the paper derives the formula of calculating the volatility of the grow rate of the value of the generation project. The proposed framework and the corresponding methods introduced provide a useful reference for developing an applied decision-support system for generation investment.