| 扎龙湿地发展趋势的ARIMA分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭龙珠,王福林,郭龙胜,王志兴. 扎龙湿地发展趋势的ARIMA分析[J]. 农业系统科学与综合研究, 2005, 21(4): 280-282 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭龙珠 王福林 郭龙胜 王志兴 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学,工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030
2. 黑龙江省水利水电勘测设计研究院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（30370825）;教育部重点项目（02049）. |
| |
| 摘 要： | 湿地面积发展模型不仅是非平稳序列,而且是非发散的季节周期相关序列,季节序列的特点是季节时滞处强相关。应用非平稳时间序列分析扎龙湿地面积演化动态,可有效地剔除用于预测的历史数据中的野值及奇异点,修正了预测结果,对湿地面积演化有较好的解释能力,利于建模和预测。结果表明,该方法用于湿地发展面积预测建模速度快、预测精度高,是一种行之有效的方法。图4,表3,参3。
|
| 关 键 词： | 非平稳时间序列分析 扎龙湿地 湿地面积 季节周期 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0068（2005）04-0280-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-08-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-13 |
Forecast of non-stationary time series for Zhalong wetland area of development |
| |
| GUO Long-zhu,WANG Fu-lin,GUO Long-sheng,WANG Zhi-xing. Forecast of non-stationary time series for Zhalong wetland area of development[J]. System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture, 2005, 21(4): 280-282 |
| |
| Authors: | GUO Long-zhu WANG Fu-lin GUO Long-sheng WANG Zhi-xing |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China ; 2. Hydraulic and Electricity Survey and Designing Institute of Heilonjiang , Harbin 150080, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Wetland area development model is not only a non-stationary time series,but also a non-divergence seasonal period correlate series,and its character is strong correlate at seasonal time lag.Using non-stationary time series analyze Zhalong wetland area development,can pick up the outliers and singular values effectively in the historical data for the prediction and may correct the prediction results.The results of calculation example from a real wetland area development forecast show that this method is effectual,with high modeling speed and high forecasting accuracy can be obtained. |
| |
| Keywords: | non-stationary time series Zhalong wetland area seasonal period |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
