市场不确定环境下返还政策对销售的影响研究

采用博弈理论,研究了市场需求不确定条件下,无返还政策、完全返还政策和部分返还政策等三种政策对竞争性零售商行为、制造商的销量和利润的影响.研究表明,低市场需求状态下,返还政策降低了零售商的价格竞争风险,减少销售量,而高需求状态下,返还政策则加强了价格竞争,增加了销售量;在制造商边际生产成本足够低的情况下,返还政策能够增加制造商的利润,同时,在选择部分返还政策时,如果返还比例选择合理,可以使部分返还政策下制造商的利润要高于完全返还政策下的利润.

Study on Returns Polices How to Influence Sale under Demand Uncertainty

Retail's inventories returns policies is a common means to increase sales and improve profits for manufacturer.By means of gaming theory,the paper studies three polices including no returns policies and full returns polices and discount returns polices how to influence competitive retailers' conduct and manufacture's sale quantity and profits.The study shows some results.Returns policies reduce retailers' price competition risk and sale quantity under low market demand.At the same time,returns policies intensify retailers' price competition risk and increase sale quantity under high market demand.Returns policies can increase manufacture's profit when manufacture's marginal production cost is low enough.At the same time,manufacture's profit under discount returns polices may be higher than profit under full returns polices when the discount rate of discount returns polices is reasonable.