载人航天空间应用利益相关者系统动力学模型

在界定了利益相关者的基础上,分别从载人航天空间应用研发阶段和应用阶段出发构建利益相关者因果关系图,并联立建立总体因果关系图,继而构建利益相关者的系统动力学模型。基于该模型运用计算机建模工具Vensim软件进行系统仿真,并就空间应用效益进行敏感度分析,探讨了输出结果。同时,依据利益相关者在载人航天空间应用系统中的影响程度进行了科学排序。在系统中,对载人航天空间应用效益影响由大到小排序依次是用户、载人航天主管部门、政府主管部门、技术人员、竞争对手、合作者、上游供应商、行业组织、大众传媒力度和社会大众。

System dynamics model of stakeholders in manned spaceflight space applications

Based on a qualitative analysis about structure and relationships of the stakeholders of manned spaceflight, the system dynamics model of the manned spaceflight space application stakeholders is constructed by establishing the causal relationship model of the stakeholders in the research and development stage and the application stage respectively. Based on the model, the computer simulation tool Vensim is used to simulate, the sensitivity analysis is carried out, and the output results are discussed. A scientific ranking is maked based on the degree of influence of stakeholders in the manned space application system. The results show that the influence degree of the stakeholders is in the order of the manned spaceflight space applications users, administration departments, government departments, and technicians, resources and products competitors, development partners, research and development application upstream suppliers, industry organizations, mass media and social public.