面向体系贡献率的装备体系评估方法研究综述

面向体系贡献率,总结了武器装备体系贡献率评估的研究现状并分析了研究的技术难点,对基于作战环、复杂网络、证据推理、灰靶理论、贝叶斯网络、结构方程模型、探索性分析等目前用于评估武器装备体系贡献率的方法进行了综述,对比分析了不同评估方法的优缺点。从装备体系构成及贡献率评估特点出发,采用基于作战环和复杂网络的武器装备体系评估方法,能够全面反映装备在体系作战中的各类关系,支持从体系的角度对武器装备的贡献率进行多维度评估,更能贴近评估装备对于体系贡献的衡量。

Review of the evaluation methods of equipment system of systems facing the contribution rate

From the perspective of the evaluation on the contribution rate of weapon system of systems, this article summarizes the current research status and the technical difficulties in this research field. More specifically, the methods based on the combat loop, complex network, evidence reasoning, gray target theory, Bayes network, the structural equation model, exploratory analysis etc. are used to evaluate the contribution rate of weapon equipment system of systems. Furthermore, their advantages and disadvantages are compared and analyzed. Base on the comparisons, the method based on operation loops and complex networks which takes into consideration the relations between different weapons is able to assess the contribution of the weapon equipment in multiple dimensions. Hence, this method can provide more scientific and reasonable results to decision makers.