面向任务流程的装备体系完成任务概率仿真评估方法

为了解决传统可靠性建模方法无法刻画装备体系复杂性及对装备体系完成任务概率进行准确评估等问题,提出了一种面向任务流程的装备体系完成任务概率离散事件仿真评估方法。该评估方法中,采用过程流网方法对装备体系任务流程进行建模,并对过程流网扩展了时间和资源等元素,引入活动影响因子,梳理子任务及活动间逻辑关系。采用离散事件仿真方法建立装备体系完成任务概率仿真评估模型,生成实体执行仿真过程,将进入导致任务成功的端点的实体数量与生成的所有实体总量的比记为完成任务概率,设置仿真时钟记录实体执行每项活动的时间,求平均值记为任务平均时间。最后,以某典型陆军作战体系为例,说明所提出方法的可行性。

Mission process oriented simulation evaluation method of mission completion probability for equipment system of systems

To solve the problem that traditional reliability evaluation methods cannot describe the complexity of equipment system of systems (ESoS) and evaluate the mission completion probability accurately, a new-evaluation-method based on discrete event simulation is proposed. In this method, the process flow network method with expanded elements such as time and resources and activity impact factor are used to model the task flow of ESoS to clarify logical relationships between sub-tasks and activities. The discrete event simulation method is used to establish the ESoS mission completion probability simulation evaluation model, entities are generated to perform the simulation process. The mission completion probability is set the ratio of the number of entities entering the endpoint that caused the success of the mission to the total amount of all entities generated, and the simulation clock is set to record the time at which time each entity performed each activity. The mean mission time is recorded as the average time of the mission. Finally, a typical army operation ESoS is simulated as an example to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.