基于确信可靠度的齿轮可靠性建模与分析

现行的齿轮可靠性建模与分析方法往往只考虑了固有不确定性的影响,而忽略了实际中由于知识的缺乏而导致的认知不确定性对可靠性分析结果的影响。本文给出了基于性能裕量的确信可靠度计算流程和算法,应用不确定理论描述了齿轮部分设计参数和影响因素的认知不确定性,定量地计算了接触疲劳和弯曲疲劳下的齿轮确信可靠度并进行了参数敏感度分析。此外,将确信可靠度与未考虑参数认知不确定性的可靠度进行比较,进一步说明了考虑认知不确定性的必要性。

Reliability modeling and analysis of gear based on belief reliability

The current gear reliability modeling and analysis methods only consider the effect of aleatory uncertainty, and ignore the impact of epistemic uncertainty due to lack of knowledge on reliability analysis results. In this paper, the procedure and algorithm of belief reliability calculation based on performance margin are presented. The epistemic uncertainty of some design parameters and influence factors of gears are described by the uncertainty theory, the reliability of gear’s contact fatigue and bending fatigue are calculated， and the parameter sensitivity is analyzed. Besides, the reliability without considering epistemic uncertainty is compared with the above belief reliability, which further illustrates the necessity of considering epistemic uncertainty.