无失效数据条件下装备贮存可靠性分析

为解决装备贮存可靠度评估问题,对寿命分布为平均失效率递增类分布(increasing failure rates on the average,IFRA)的装备的贮存可靠性进行分析。首先,针对装备检测过程中可能出现的无失效数据情况,确定了失效概率的先验分布并给出了Bayes估计。然后用加权最小二乘法给出了寿命分布的参数估计,进而得到了装备贮存可靠度的估计和表达式。最后结合实例进行计算,说明了方法的稳定性和可行性,为工程上评估装备贮存可靠度提供借鉴。

Reliability analysis for equipment in storage with zero-failure data

In order to solve the problem of equipment storage reliability evaluation, the storage reliability of equipment with life distribution with increasing failure rates on the average (IFRA) isanalyzed. Firstly, aiming at the situation of zero failure data that may appear in the equipment detection process, the prior distribution of failure probability is determined and Bayesian estimation is given. Then, the weighted least square method is used to obtain the parameters of life distribution, and the estimation and expression of equipment reliability are obtained. Finally, the calculated results of a practical problem show that the proposed method is feasible and stable, and provide references for reliability assessment in engineering application.