基于GADSPN的复杂装备危险耦合传递模型

针对装备危险耦合传递随机Petri网(stochastic Petri nets,SPN)模型存在指数分布限制、求解过程复杂的问题,提出广义任意分布SPN(general arbitrary distribution SPN,GADSPN)模型。通过引入熵概率密度函数、矩母函数(moment generating function,MGF)将变迁分布推广至一般任意分布;采用耦合度公式、极大熵模型分别求解GADSPN变迁使能概率及其危险度概率密度函数。基于GADSPN等效MGF性质改进传统SPN模型解析分析能力,提出了装备系统等效危险度、危险状态敏感度、危险路径恶化度等分析参数,并结合SPN模型的状态机、可达图、T-不变量,构建GADSPN分析步骤;最后,通过飞机大表速低空俯冲实例和基于蒙特卡罗与ExSpect平台仿真验证表明,GADSPN模型能充分反映装备危险活动耦合传递随机交互过程,具有较好的求解精度与适用性。

Analysis on coupled conduction for complex materiel hazard based on general arbitrary distribution SPN

Aiming at the limitation of exponential distribution and complexity of solution in the traditional safety stochastic Petri nets (SPN) model, general arbitrary distribution SPN (GADSPN) for materiel hazard coupled conduction is proposed. Its transition distribution is generalized by entropy density function and moment generating function (MGF). The transition probability and interrelated hazard degree density function are got respectively by coupled degree formula, maximum entropy model, and the analysis performance of GADSPN is improved based on the character of equivalent MGF. The parameters of system equivalent hazard degree, hazard state sensitivity and hazard path deterioration are put forward,then the analysis process is constructed based on SPN state machine, reachability graph and T-invariant. Finally, an applied case of the battleplan “high velocity at low altitude” training subject and simulation based on Monte-Carlo & ExSpect are provided to illustrate the availability of GADSPN. The results show that the random influence relationship among the coupled conduction process of materiel hazard activities is reflected adequately by the GADSPN model, with good fitting accuracy and application.