基于公众认知与政府引导的邻避舆情演化模型

针对近年邻避群体事件的舆情诱发性,基于公众认知和政府引导视角研究邻避舆情演化问题.首先,通过多案例比较分析,提炼邻避舆情演化的宏观特征,并基于Gompertz模型改进给予刻画;随后,分析个体对邻避项目的微观认知交互行为,运用演化博弈建模来描述个体复制动态;同时,考虑政府通过正面舆论对邻避舆情给予回应,运用信息熵理论和动力学方法构建政府舆论引导的交互熵模型和动力学方程;进而在此基础上,给出"公众-政府"邻避舆情演化模型;最后,讨论该模型均衡点的存在性和稳定性,并以"广东茂名PX事件"的邻避舆情演化为基础案例进行数值仿真研究.结果表明:当公众对邻避项目风险认知偏差较小时,政府应适当尊重邻避舆情,并遵循渐进式的引导路径对邻避舆情给予及时、主动的关切性回应,否则,邻避舆情会愈演愈烈;而当公众对邻避项目风险认知偏差较大时,政府应对邻避舆情加强跟踪和监管,并给予及时、适量的客观回应,否则,邻避舆情会演化到较高稳态.

Evolution model of NIMBY opinion based on public perception and governmental guidance

In view of the NIMBY group events evoked by the public opinion in recent years, this paper studies the evolution of NIMBY opinion from the perspective of public perception for the NIMBY project and governmental guidance to the public opinion. Firstly, through multiple cases comparative analysis, the evolution characteristics of NIMBY opinion are extracted macroscopically, and is described based on the Gompertz model improvement. Subsequently, the cognitive interaction behavior of individuals to the NIMBY project is analyzed from the micro perspective, and the dynamics of individual replication is described based on the evolutionary game modeling. At the same time, considering the government's response to NIMBY opinion through the positive opinion, the cross-entropy model and dynamic equation of the government by the guidance to NIMBY opinion are constructed based on the information entropy theory and the dynamic method. Then, on this basis, the evolution model of NIMBY opinion with the "public-government" is proposed. Finally, the existence and stability of the equilibrium point of the model are discussed and applied to a numerical simulation study, taking evolution of NIMBY opinion for the Maoming PX event in Guangdong as example. The results show that:When the public perception difference for the risk of NIMBY project is small, the government should properly respect the NIMBY opinion, and follow the gradual guidance path to give a timely, actively and concerned response to the NIMBY opinion. Otherwise, the NIMBY opinion will become more and more popular. When the public perception is very different, the government should strengthen the tracking and supervision for the NIMBY opinion, and give a timely, appropriate and objective response to NIMBY opinion. Otherwise, the NIMBY opinion will evolve to a higher steady state.