基于核和灰度的区间灰数预测模型

在灰色系统理论研究领域，以“灰数”序列为建模对象的灰色预测模型的研究还较为缺乏。以区间灰数的“核”序列为基础建立预测模型，实现未来区间灰数“核”的预测，然后以“灰度不减公理”为理论依据，以“核”为中心拓展得出区间灰数的上界和下界；在不破坏区间灰数独立性和完整性的前提下，实现了区间灰数预测模型的构建；算例分析验证了该模型的有效性及实用性；区间灰数预测模型对丰富与完善灰色预测模型的理论体系、拓展灰色预测模型的应用范围，均具有十分重要的意义。

Prediction model of interval grey number based on kernel and degree of greyness

In the field of grey system theory research, it is short of the researches on grey prediction models which are based on the sequences of grey number. A prediction model based on “kernels of interval grey numbers ” is built to realize the future kernel’s prediction, and then according to the axiom of undecreased degree of greyness, and taking the kernel as the center, the upper and lower limits of an interval grey number are extended and obtained, and the prediction model of the interval grey number is built on the premise of without destroying the independence and integrity of interval grey numbers. An example analysis verifies the validity and practicability of the new model. The prediction models of interval grey numbers have a vital significance for enriching and perfecting the grey prediction model theory system, and extending the applied scope of grey prediction models.