Change in the tilting of the ridgeline surface of the subtropical anticyclone and the predictability of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to study the relationships among the change in the tilting of the ridgeline surface of the subtropical anticyclone, the establishment of the so-called "seasonal transition axis (STA)" and the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. It is shown that the monsoon onset is characterized by the overturning of the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) in the vicinity of the ridgeline surface. A MTG index is then constructed to investigate the predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset conceptually. Data diagnoses show that if the initial MTG is known and the meridional gradient across the ridgeline surface of the local temperature tendency can be estimated, a late or early onset of the summer monsoon can be qualitatively predicted in advance.