2018年金融运行分析与2019年展望

2018年M2余额同比增速止跌回稳，社会融资规模增速持续放缓，实体经济融资成本整体有所上行，人民币汇率出现一轮快速贬值，跨境资金“偏流出”压力显现。中美贸易摩擦是2019年我国经济金融平稳运行的最大外部不确定因素，经济下行压力与金融整顿带来“紧信用”难题，人民币贬值与跨境资金流出风险将持续抬头，货币政策放松空间及宽松效用难以有效释放。金融调控要积极防范外部冲击与内部压力共振可能引发的经济明显减速与风险过快释放，在防范和处置金融风险隐患的同时，支持宏观经济在合理区间平稳运行。

Analysis and Forecasting of China's Financial Operation Situation and Monetary Policy

In 2018, the growth rate of M2 stabilizes. The growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy keeps descending. The financing costs of real economy go up. RMB exchange rate experienced rapid devaluation for some time. The cross-border capital faces outflow pressure. In 2019, trade frictions between China and the United States will be a huge risk factor for the economic and financial operation of China. Economic downward pressures and financial rectifications will lead to tight credit. The pressures of RMB exchange rate devaluation and cross-border capital outflow will still exist. The effection of monetary easing will be limited. The financial regulation should prepare to prevent the obvious deceleration of China economy growth rate, and rapid release of risks.