| 南湾水库水旱灾变信息预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 剧红.南湾水库水旱灾变信息预测[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996,16(8):89-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 剧红 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省信阳地区南湾水库管理局 |
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| 摘 要： | 为克服防汛工作上的盲目性和麻痹思想,搞好水库调度运用,确保工程安全,充分发挥效益,本文应用灰色系统理论,根据南湾水库流域多年降雨径流资料,采用ＧＭ（１,１）模型和灾变预测建模方法,建立南湾水库水旱灾变预测模型,并对未来灾害年做出预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 灾变预测 南湾水库 预测模型 水库水 水库流域 模型精度检验 异常值 灰色系统理论 防汛工作 降雨径流 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-04-21 |
Forecasting of Drought and Flood Disaster of Nanwan Reservior |
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| Ju Hong.Forecasting of Drought and Flood Disaster of Nanwan Reservior[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,1996,16(8):89-95. |
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| Authors: | Ju Hong |
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| Institution: | Administrative Bureau of Nanwan Reservior, Xinyang 464031 |
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| Abstract: | In order to overcome blindness and paralytic thinding in flood-fghter, do well dispatch and application of reservior, en sure safety of project, allow maxium benefits. In this paper, adopted grey system theory, according to rainful and runoff information over a period of yeas of NanWan reservior drainage basin, applied GM(1,1)model and method of build model of forecastion of disaster, established forecastion model of drought and flood disater of NanWan reservior, it also forecasted calamitous years in the future. |
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