首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

SARS疫情传播的时间序列分析
引用本文:高世泽.SARS疫情传播的时间序列分析[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,21(3):8-12.
作者姓名:高世泽
作者单位:重庆师范大学,数学与计算机科学学院,重庆,400047
摘    要:利用时间序列分析的思想1~3],对北京市2003年4~6月的累计确诊SARS病例进行研究,获得了日增确诊病例的变化趋势方程,并用自回归模型AR(20)来拟合传播过程,经方差分析知模型效果高度显著,将预测值与实际值比较,结果比较理想.由此推定每个SARS病人可以直接造成他人感染的期限平均在20天左右.

关 键 词:SARS疫情  时间序列分析  趋势方程  自回归模型
文章编号:1672-6693(2004)03-0008-05
修稿时间:2004年3月30日

Analysis of Time Series of Transmission of SARS
GAO Shi-ze.Analysis of Time Series of Transmission of SARS[J].Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2004,21(3):8-12.
Authors:GAO Shi-ze
Abstract:In this paper the accumulative cases of SARS that have been made a definite diagnosis from April to June, 2003, in Beijing are investigated by analysis of time series. We give the trend equations of incremental cases of SARS every day. We also give a model AR(20) of Transmission of SARS. The model is notable at high level by analysis of variance. It is very good by comparing the predicted values with observed values. Therefore, we infer that the average time that a patient with SARS transmit other one is about 20 days.
Keywords:SARS  analysis of time series  trend equations  autoregressive model  
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号