海河流域与水相关的生态环境承载力研究

为实现海河流域的可持续发展,需进行生态环境承载力研究.本文从水资源、生态环境、人口与经济的关系出发,针对海河流域生态环境恶化问题,探讨了与水相关的生态环境承载力的内涵、指标体系;提出时间序列与最优化理论相结合计算生态环境承载力的量化模型;得出海河流域现状处于生态环境严重超载状态;在南水北调、经济常规发展下,到2035年左右达到可承载的良好状态.

Study of the carrying capacity of eco-environments related to water in Haihe River Basin

With over-fast social-economic development and over population, living water use is increasing rapidly in the Huaihe River Basin, while the volume of ecologial water-supply has decreased and serious eco-environmental problems related to water have appeared, such as water and soil loss, channel leakage, wet-lands shrinkage, water contamination and the fall of annual water flow reaching the sea, etc. In order to radically resolve the problems and make the river basin sustainable, the carrying capacity of eco-environments related to water in Haihe River Basin is studied. In relation to water resources, eco-environment, population and economy, the problems of eco-environments related to water in Haihe River Basin are analyzed, the concept of eco-environmental carrying capacity related to water is given and its index system is founded. A mathematical model is established by unifying time series with multi-objectives optimization. The carrying capacity of eco-environments related to water is calculated with reference to the water supply to be provided by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and to the social-economic development. The results show that the eco-environments in Haihe River Basin are now in a serious over-loaded state, and it will not be able to reach to a reasonable state until about 2035.