洪水灾害避难迁安系统分析模型及其应用

随着城市化和工业化进程的加速,洪水所造成的经济损失越来越大,洪灾避难迁安系统是防灾减灾中重要的非工程措施.为此在数字高程和溃口流量资料基础上,利用数学形态学中的膨胀算子和水量平衡法来模拟淹没水深和范围;针对道路网络特点,提出"点线结合型"洪灾避难分析思想,并根据随机度划分防洪预警水平;利用界壳理论中的开关模型对进入安置区的人口进行控制;再利用G IS图层叠加法和前景理论模型来优选出最佳方案.实际应用结果表明,所建模型在实践中应用效果良好,并可推广应用到其他地区,具有广阔的应用前景.

Model and Application of Evacuation System for Flood Control

With the development of urbanization and industrialization,the loss caused by flood becomes seriously.The evacuation system is an important non-structure measure for flood control.Firstly,based on digital elevation model and flux of inrush,the flood submerged area and the depth were simulated by using expansion operator in mathematics morphology and water balance method.Secondly,in view of the road nets,a "point-line combination" idea was put forward,and warning levels for flood control were plot out by random degree.Thirdly,the immigrant quantities were restricted by the on-off model in Jie Ke theory.Finally,the optimal scheme was selected by using overlay algorithm of hierarchical maps in GIS and prospect theory.An example shows that the proposed methods are suitable for flood disaster in practice.The system can be applied into other regions with expansive application foreground.