基于IPA方法的福岛核事故外部成本评价

 应用影响路径分析（IPA）方法建立了福岛核事故的外部成本计量框架，对短期和中期内造成的公众撤离和避迁，农产品、海产品、食品和渔业影响，旅游业影响，核电行业损失，避难者心理影响，核污染地区的清污和恢复，以及核事故赔偿等方面影响的外部成本估算结果为8.6 日元/kW·h，对核事故后果影响做了初步探讨。结果表明，福岛核事故造成的直接辐射危害很小，但造成了广泛社会影响和巨大经济损失，而相比于海啸和地震极端自然灾害造成的损失仍然很小。福岛核事故的外部成本高昂，主要源于核事故应急措施和危机应对等社会因素。

External Cost Evaluation of Fukushima Nuclear Accident Based on IPA Method

The impact pathway approach is applied to establish an accounting framework of externalities of Fukushima nuclear accident and the short-term and mid-term impacts are evaluated, including the public evacuation and relocation, the crops, the seafood, the food and fisheries impacts, the tourism impact, the nuclear power industry losses, the asylum seeker psychological impacts, the clean-up and the restoration of the contaminated areas, and the nuclear accident compensation. The external cost of Fukushima nuclear accident is about 8.6 JPY/kW · h. With respect to the nuclear accident consequence, it is shown that the radiological impacts are small, however, the broad social influence and the economic losses are great, though still smaller than the losses caused by the severe earthquake and tsunami. The main causes of the high external cost of Fukushima nuclear accident are the social activities in the accident emergency and the crisis response measures.