中国未来能源需求趋势分析

为给中国能源发展规划提供参考,分析预测了中国未来能源需求状况。采用了国际间比较分析的方法,对不同国家在不同发展阶段人均国民生产总值(GDP)与人均能源消费总量、GDP能源消费强度、人均电力消费、交通用能之间的关系进行分析。结果表明,随着中国未来经济的发展,中国能源消费总量还将大幅度增长;中国未来GDP能源强度还有一定的下降空间,电力消费和油品消费在终端能源中的比例将进一步提高。

Analysis of China's future energy demands

The future energy demands were predicted to provide reference data for China's energy system planning.The predictions were based on an comparative international analysis of data for the GDP(Gross Domestic Product) per capita,energy consumption per capita,GDP energy consumption intensity,electricity consumption per capita and share of transport energy consumption for various countries at various stages of development.Several irregularcties were identified between energy demand and economic development.The results show that China's energy demand will increase along with its economic development,that China's GDP energy intensity will decrease,and that the electricity demand ratio and oil product demand ratio will increase in the final energy mix.