基于改进FCE的渡槽安全综合评价

针对渡槽安全评价中指标赋权和模糊综合评价法(FCE)算子优化的问题，提出基于改进FCE的渡槽安全综合评价方法。该方法采用基于自然指数e^0/5~e^8/5标度的层次分析法(AHP)，得到各个评价指标主观权重，再通过熵权法计算专家自身客观权重，将主观权重与客观权重融合得到优化后的权重，然后引进全优型合成算子计算总目标隶属度，再与对应的风险等级进行加权综合得到风险度，以此确定渡槽的安全类别。将该方法应用于具体工程的安全评价，结果表明，评价结果与主因素突出型合成算子和加权平均型合成算子的结果一致。基于改进FCE的渡槽安全综合评价方法降低了主观偏差，避免了算子的选择，具有较强的可操作性。

Comprehensive safety evaluation of aqueduct based on improved FCE method

Aiming at problems of the index weighting and the operator optimization of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)method in the aqueduct safety evaluation, a comprehensive evaluation method of aqueduct safety based on the of improved FCE method was proposed. In the proposed method, the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method based on the natural index of e^0/5 to e^8/5 was used to obtain the subjective weight of each evaluation index, and the objective weight of the experts was calculated by entropy weight method to optimize the subjective weight. Then the total objective membership degree was calculated by introducing the all-optimal synthesis operator, and the risk degree was obtained by the weighted synthesis with the corresponding risk grade, to determine the safety category of the aqueduct. The method was applied to the safety evaluation of a specific project, and the results show that the evaluation results were consistent with those of the principal factor protruding type composition operator and the weighted average type composition operator. This method reduces the subjective deviation, avoids the selection of operators, and has strong maneuverability.