特高拱坝变形监测的分区及其模型构建方法

面板数据模型考虑了测点间的联系和异质性,引入面板数据模型构建特高拱坝的分区安全监测模型.通过实测温度的主成分分析,筛选得到典型实测温度变量;融合主成分分析和层次聚类法,提出基于监测时间序列的变形测点分区方法;以此建立各分区面板数据,通过检验确定面板数据模型类型,构建基于实测温度的分区变形测点的回归模型;通过分区及其回归...

Zoned deformation monitoring and its model building method for super high arch dams

The panel data model accounts for the relationships and the heterogeneities among points, therefore, it was introduced in this study to construct a zoned safety monitoring model for super high arch dams. Firstly, the principal component analysis(PCA)was used to select the typical variables of measured temperatures. Secondly, the hierarchical clustering method based on PCA was applied to propose a data-based zoning method for deformation monitoring points. Then the panel data of each zone was established, and its type was determined by statistical tests, thus the corresponding regression model zone was constructed. Finally, through the comparative analyses of the spatial distribution of zones and the fitted parameters(e. g. , intercept terms and variable coefficients of various zones), both the deformation characteristics of zones and the spatial deformation characteristics of the dam can be identified. A super high arch dam during its initial operation period was investigated, and the focused plumb line points were divided into four zones according to the observation data. After the statistical tests, fixed effect regression models of zones were established. The results show that the spatial deformation is in accordance with the actual condition, and the factors such as the unstable temperature field and the nonlinear time varying effect during the initial operation period have obvious influences on the dam deformation.