土压平衡盾构掘进参数相关性分析及预测模型

为了研究盾构机在特定地层条件正常掘进状态下的掘进参数选取和预测,以深圳地铁16号线天健花园站—龙城中路站左线土压平衡盾构施工区间的微风化灰岩地层段为背景,对其掘进参数进行数理统计、Pearson相关性分析及建立预测模型.考虑了施工工艺等因素对数据的影响;对6个主要掘进参数的相关性进行了定量分析;用多元线性回归和随机森林方法对主要掘进参数进行建模预测.研究结果表明,在该地层条件下的推进速度平均值为15.81 mm/min、总推进力平均值为12973.69 kN等;计算出6个掘进参数间的Pearson相关系数,其中总推进力和刀盘转矩的相关系数r为0.569,存在显著的中等正相关关系;运用相关系数r、平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)3个指标对模型进行对比评估,结果表明随机森林模型预测性能更优.

Correlation analysis and prediction model of boring parameters of earth pressure balance shield

To research the selection and prediction of boring parameters of shield tunneling machine under normal boring performance in specific stratum conditions. The article is based on the stratum in the micro-weathered limestone section of the left line of Tianjian Garden Station ~ Longcheng Middle Road Station of Shenzhen Metro Line 16, and relevant statistical analysis and Pearson correlation analysis have been conducted. The prediction model has been set as well. The effect of factors like construction process to final data has been taken into consideration. Meanwhile, the six main boring parameters had quantitative analysis for their correlation and multiple linear regression prediction models and random forest prediction models were used in modeling prediction for main boring parameters. The research shows that the average advancing speed under this stratum formation is 15.81mm/min, and the average total thrust is 12973.69kN. The Pearson correlation coefficients of six boring parameters had been calculated, of which the r value of total thrust and cutter torque is 0.569**, and there is a significant medium positive correlation. The three indexes of r, MAE and RMSE were used to compare and evaluate the models. The random forest model has the best performance.