碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究 |
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引用本文: | 陈真玲,王光辉,杨多贵. 碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究[J]. 科技促进发展, 2013, 9(1): 71-76 |
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作者姓名: | 陈真玲 王光辉 杨多贵 |
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作者单位: | 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京 100190;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京 100190;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京 100190 |
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基金项目: | 国家教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDZONGHE 015) |
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摘 要: | 从经济增长与资源环境的关系入手,构建经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的向量自回归模型(VAR),运用脉冲响应函数研究三个变量之间的相互关系,并分别建立能源消费和二氧化碳排放为自变量的协整方程,结果表明: 经济增长与能源消费和碳排放具有长期的协整关系,经济增长每提高1%,能源消费增长增加0.240%,同时导致二氧化碳排放增加0.295%。这说明我国的高速经济增长过程中,付出了较大的资源环境自然代价。
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关 键 词: | 经济增长 碳排放 向量自回归(VAR)模型 |
Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth |
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Abstract: | In this study, we chose the relationship between the economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as the breakthrough point, and triedto establish vector autoregressive model (VAR), a nd analyzed the relationship between the three variables by the impulse response function.Co-integration equation was establishedin this study in which the independent variable was the energy consumption and carbon dioxide separately. We could obtain an important conclusion: there existing a long-term co-integration relationship among the economic growth and energy consumption and environmental pollution. Sp ecifi cally, th e energy consumption could increase 0.24% when the economic growth increased by1%, and which led to a 0.295% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This showedthat China hadpaid a relatively high resources environment cost because of the high-speed economic growth. |
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Keywords: | Economicgrowth Carbon dioxide emissions Vector auto regression (var) model |
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