碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究

从经济增长与资源环境的关系入手，构建经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的向量自回归模型（VAR），运用脉冲响应函数研究三个变量之间的相互关系，并分别建立能源消费和二氧化碳排放为自变量的协整方程，结果表明: 经济增长与能源消费和碳排放具有长期的协整关系，经济增长每提高1%，能源消费增长增加0.240%，同时导致二氧化碳排放增加0.295%。这说明我国的高速经济增长过程中，付出了较大的资源环境自然代价。

Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

In this study, we chose the relationship between the economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as the breakthrough point, and triedto establish vector autoregressive model (VAR), a nd analyzed the relationship between the three variables by the impulse response function.Co-integration equation was establishedin this study in which the independent variable was the energy consumption and carbon dioxide separately. We could obtain an important conclusion: there existing a long-term co-integration relationship among the economic growth and energy consumption and environmental pollution. Sp ecifi cally, th e energy consumption could increase 0.24% when the economic growth increased by1%, and which led to a 0.295% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This showedthat China hadpaid a relatively high resources environment cost because of the high-speed economic growth.