基于史料记载的1470～1949年广东沿海地区台风活动历史重建与分析

根据史料文献记载，并结合现代台风活动特征，对历史时期（公元14701949年）广东沿海地区的台风活动进行了重建，采用相关性分析和交叉小波分析方法探讨了历史时期的台风活动、北半球平均气温以及太平洋年代际震荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO）相互之间的关系. 研究结果显示: (1)重建的历史时期台风活动年均频次与现代台风活动统计结果比较接近，二者在登陆区域上的分布比例也基本一致; (2)近500年来北半球平均气温与影响广东沿海地区的台风活动频次之间存在较为显著的正相关性，特别是在PDO暖位相时期二者之间的正相关性显著提高，这在一定程度上意味着在当前全球变暖背景下影响广东沿海地区的台风活动频次有可能增多.

Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical Typhoon Activities in Coastal Areas of Guangdong Province from 1470~1949 AD

With historical records and characteristics of modern typhoon activities, the historical typhoon activities from 1470 to 1949 AD in coastal areas of Guangdong are reconstructed. With the help of correlation analysis and cross wavelet analysis, relationships among historical typhoon activities, mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are discussed. The results indicate that: (1)the annual frequency of typhoon activities in the historical period of reconstruction is close to that of modern typhoon activity statistics. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of historical and modern typhoon activities in this region are generally similar as well. (2)a correlation between the mean temperature in the NH and typhoon activities in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, especially over a warm period of PDO. This might give information that typhoon activities influencing the coastal areas of Guangdong would be amplified with global warming process.