火电厂生态工业园的系统动力学模拟与调控

火电厂生态工业园作为区域工业生态系统是由产业、人口、资源和环境生态等子系统组成,各子系统之间、各子系统与外部环境之间不断的进行着物质、能量、信息等的交换,是一个开放的系统.火电厂生态工业园的可持续发展依赖于各子系统的合理结构、发展模式以及对系统的有效调控.将可持续发展思想与系统动力学方法相结合,在系统地分析火电厂生态工业园的系统结构的基础上,构建了火电厂生态工业园的系统动力学模型;确定生育指数、各产业投资比、科技因子、资源循环利用率等参数为调控参数.以朔州火电厂生态工业园为案例进行了9个方案的模拟和调控.结果表明:方案7和方案8的调控参数选取合理,废物排放最少,经济、环境和社会效益最大,是朔州火电厂生态工业园实现可持续发展的相对最佳方案.

Simulation and Adjustment of System Dynamics on Power Plant Eco-Industrial Park

Power Plant Eco-Industrial Park (EIP) is as industrial ecosystem, composes of subsystems such as industrial, population, resources and environment etc. The material, energy and information etc. are exchanging among each subsystem, subsystem and outside. It is opening system. Sustainability in Power Plant EIP depends upon the reasonable structure, and development model of each subsystem and their effective adjustment. The concept of sustainability and the method of system dynamics were combined. The system dynamics model for Power Plant EIP (industrial, population, resources and environment etc.) was built. The adjustment parameters such as procreate index, investment ratio of industry, science and technology factor and resource recycling rate etc. were confirmed. As a case of Shuozhou Power Plant EIP, nine future development patterns were designed and run on the model. The simulated results indicate that the seventh pattern and the eighth pattern among them are the best projects comparatively.