中国高耗能行业碳排放因素分解与达峰路径研究

促进高耗能行业碳减排是实现我国二氧化碳排放总量于2030年之前达峰的必经之路.通过将能源增强型技术进步和二氧化碳(CO_2)排放共同纳入传统的经济增长分析框架,构建了碳排放影响因素的理论分析模型,将我国六大高耗能行业碳排放增长率的变动分解为规模效应、能源结构效应、要素替代效应和能源技术进步效应四个部分;并以此为基础,采用情景分析方法对2030年之前高耗能行业碳排放达峰路径进行探索.结果显示:1)对所有行业而言,规模效应是促进碳排放持续增加的主要因素,且该作用在十五时期表现得最为突出;相反,能源技术进步效应和要素替代效应对行业碳排放的增加均形成了一定程度的抑制;能源结构效应对碳减排的影响较为微弱且在方向上存在着行业差异.2)对于化学原料及制品、非金属制品、黑色金属加工、有色金属加工四个行业而言,能源技术进步效应对碳排放的抑制作用最为显著,尽管该效应的作用强度在时序维度上总体呈现下降趋势;与之相比,石油加工、电力生产供应两行业的碳减排主要依赖要素替代效应.3)在高排放情景下,高耗能行业碳排放总量持续快速增长,难以在2030年之前达峰;而在中排放和低排放情景下,六大行业的碳排放将分别于2023年、2017年前后达峰.

Analysis on the determinants and peaking paths of CO2 emissions in China's high energy-consuming industries

Reducing the CO₂ emissions of China's high energy-consuming industry is one of the most important prerequisites in achieving the target of peaking its total CO₂ before 2030. In this paper, we build a theoretical model on identifying the determinants of CO₂ emissions by incorporating the energy-augmenting technical progress in the analytical framework. Based on this work, the growth rates of CO₂ emissions in China's six high energy-consuming industries are decomposed into four aspects including energy mix effect, scale effect, factor substitution effect, and energy-saving technical progress effect; and the peak paths of each industry's CO₂ emissions are also studied using scenario analysis method. The results indicate that:1) the scale effect plays a dominant role in increasing the CO₂ emissions for all the industries, especially during the tenth five-year plan; on the contrary, energy-saving technical progress effect and factor substitution effect have limited the increase of industrial CO₂ emissions to a certain extent; the energy mix effect is extremely minor. 2) The energy-saving technical progress is the most effective way to reduce the CO₂ emissions for four industries although the effect decreased gradually, and the rest two mainly rely on factor substitution effect. 3) In the high emission scenario, the total CO₂ emissions of the six high energy-consuming industries continue to grow rapidly, and it is difficult to reach the peak before 2030; in the medium and low emission scenarios, the total CO₂ emissions of China's high energy-consuming industry will peak around 2017 and 2023, respectively.